American Military University

Running Head: THREAT ASSESSMENT

Threat Assessment

William Shields

American Military University

Threat Assessment

Many people hold the belief that the significant threat of terrorist's use of chemical is increasing. This belief is the result of publicized evidence of terrorist interest and capabilities in chemical and biological weapons as well as the political and social fall-out in Russia and Iraq. In addition, this belief is impacted by motivations and historical events of the past and current terrorist threat. Although chemical weapons can have a powerful psychological impact, its past use by terrorists has caused mass chaos but not caused a large number of casualties when compared to other CBRNE weapons. However, the threat of chemical weapons is still a significant threat to US national security (Cronin, 2003).

The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of how a terrorist group would conduct a CBRNE attack using sarin gas against New York City during the New Years Eve celebration in Times Square. This assessment will describe why New York City has been chosen as the target of the terrorist group and why the terrorist group would chose sarin gas as the weapon for the attack. Additionally, this assessment will illustrate who the enemy is and how the enemy was created for this simulated attack. Finally, this assessment will detail in five phases how this attack would take place from start to finish.

Why New York City

New York City is the most populous city in the United States and one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York City is a global hub of international business and commerce and is one of three significant locations for the world economy, along with London and Tokyo. The city is the home of the United Nations Headquarters making it an important center for international affairs and relations thus New York City is called the cultural capital of the world. It is because of New York City's importance to the world it has become a target of international terrorism. Since 1970, New York City has been a victim of 284 terrorist attacks suffering 2813 deaths, with 98% of the deaths occurring during the 9/11 attacks (START 2010). As a result of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 New York Police Department (NYPD) has taken it upon itself to create a counter-terrorism program that has seen to be the most effective in the world.

This program came about because of two factors: the need for terrorism prevention and not depending on the federal government for protection from international terrorism (Finnegan 2005, 5). The NYPD transformed itself in a small army against international terrorism by first creating a Counter-Terrorism Bureau within the NYPD headed by Michael Sheehan then expanding the intelligence division headed by former CIA director of operations David Cohen. By taking these two steps the NYPD created its own CIA and FBI within the NYPD. This gave the NYPD several advantages over the actually CIA and FBI, such as the ability to quickly action in intelligence gathered with the appropriate forces needed to defeat the treat. David Cohen has stated that "the air gap between information and action is the shortest I've ever experienced" symbolizing the difference in reaction times between the CIA and FBI to ground forces compared to those of the NYPD (Finnegan 2005, 7).

The goal of terrorism is to show the people that their legitimate government can't protect them and they should just concede to the terrorist's demands. With New York City being a central hub for international commerce and having one of the most extensive counter-terrorism programs in the world, if terrorists were successful in a terror attack against the city it would create extreme distrust in the government and in the NYPD. The citizens of New York City would feel unprotected and would take their own measures to protect themselves, which would lead to mass chaos and in the end make the city even vulnerable to terrorist attacks. On a national level, another significant terrorist attack in New York City would crimple the security perception that many Americans have. After 9/11, the US government swore to the American people that they would go to any length to protect them from a terrorist attack of that magnitude. Economically, the terrorist attacks on 9/11 caused significant damage when counting the value of lives lost as well as property damage and lost production of goods and services, the lost well exceed $100 billion. When the lost to domestic investors are included the cost approaches $2 trillion, with the American economy in the current shape it is now, the US cannot afford another massive terrorist attack (IAGS, 2004). On the international level, if a significant terrorist attack occurred in New York City, the effects from the attack would be felt across the globe economically. Many foreign investors have money invested the US stock exchanges and in corporations that are headquartered in New York City. Also, since New York City has such an extensive counter-terrorist program, which several other major cities worldwide would like to implement, an attack would show that this program is flawed and ineffective. Finally, an attack would show that no government can protect its citizens from terrorism.

Why Sarin Gas

Sarin gas is one of the world's most dangerous chemical warfare agents, because it is an extremely toxic substance that disrupts the nervous system, causes overstimulation of muscles and vital organs. It is a man made chemical warfare agent that is now classified as a nerve agent by the UN. It has no odor, taste or color, which makes its detection only known through testing and identification of its caused symptoms. In high doses, sarin suffocates its victims by paralyzing the muscles around their lungs. One hundred milligrams of sarin (about one drop) can kill the average person in a few minutes if he or she's not given an antidote (Prevention, 2006). People can be mainly exposed to sarin gas in droplets, aerosol or vapor forms, also it may be inhaled or ingested. The effect of sarin gas depends on the extent and length of the exposure. Generally, symptoms of exposure will appear within a few seconds and last up to 18 hours. These symptoms include blurred vision, chest tightness, confusion, weakness and rapid breathing. Exposure to large amounts of sarin gas leads to loss of consciousness, paralysis, and respiratory failure leading to death (Prevention, 2006).

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