Amgen

Amgen (Exhibit 1)

2009: Revenue = usd 14.6 billion; Net Income= usd 4.6 billion

R&D expenses decreasing

Amgen largest product Aranesp (-15% change), Enbrel (-3% change)

Denosumab Patent: Scheduled from 2010 to expire between 2017- 2023

Osteoporosis:

10 million americans already have it. Another 34 million at risk

Estimate: half of all women older than 50 will break a bone. 1 in 4 men will too

Study: 10.9% had a vertebral fracture; 2.5% (of postmenopausal women) had a hip fracture during 3 year period.

Actonel: global usd 1.4 billion in june 2009.  

Bonivia us usd 600 million in 2008

Reclast  US sales of 579 million in 2010

Evista us sales of 682 million In 2009; global sales: 1 billion in 2009

Forteo: 518 million sales us sales; global sales 817 million in 2009

In 2008, Global Sales: 7.8 billion; US Sales: 55%= 4.29 billion

In 2010, 5.6 million receiving osteoporosis; about 50% receiving treatments.

In 2008, Amgen estimated: 30.7 million with osteo; 15.5 million (49%) diagnosed; 50 treated= 7.8 million; only 60% treated effectively

Prolia: 825$ per injection, 1650 per year. First sales were in mid-2010.

Medicare Part B: doctors’ expenses, necessary medical care

Medicare D: most osteo drugs covered. Takes time for insurance firms to approve.  Out of pocket spending is a factor for many patients.

Primary care physicians: buy and bill model (covered by Medicare B). Physicians keep inventory with them. Not preferred by physicians.

Prolia targeting both primary care physicians and specialists- (no data provided)

Analysts expected that prolia will be the only major player to launch a new product for oseteo in the next 5 years.

Fosmax- patent expire: Feb 2008

Actonel- Patent expire: May 2012

Boniva- patent expire: Mar 2012

Evista- patent expire: 2012

Denosuamb- from 2010 to 2017/2023.

Bone Metastases

In 2009, 1.5 million are diagnosed with cancer – 0.5 million die every year in 2007

In 2010,         220,000 cases, 157,000 deaths – Lung cancer –         Total – 0.4 million

        217,000 cases, 32,000 deaths – prostate cancer –         Total – 2.3 million

        209,000 cases, 40,000 deaths – breast cancer -        Total – 2.6 million

70% of advanced breast and prostate cancer develop bone metastases

Avg age of diagnosis for prostate cancer is 68 years – Medicare D

More than 50% with bone metastases experience SREs

87% -No BM, No SRE

47% - BM, no SRE

40% - BM, SRE

Treatment options:

        Zometa – reduced 30-40% risk of SRE – 2010

                        Global sales of 1.5 billion – US – 800 million

                        Annual cost - 10,900 – Once in 4 weeks

                        Patient expire in 2013

        Amgen study for bone metastases: