Connector Breif View of 2011
Essay by people • August 3, 2011 • Essay • 259 Words (2 Pages) • 1,381 Views
Historically, the connector industry goes through business cycles that result in consecutive years of growth
before experiencing a downturn. Since 1980, we have had five growth business cycles, including 2010,
when a new business cycle started.
Connector Industry Business Cycles
These cycles are clearly visible in the following graph.
Bishop and Associates, Inc. Copyright © 2011 3
This data provides some interesting findings:
Since 1980, the average growth cycle for the connector industry is six years.
Three of the four cycles produced compound annual growth rates of 9.5% to 10%.
The highs and lows have been more pronounced in the past 10 years - more volatility.
The strength of the 2010 recovery (sales growth of +28.4%), combined with the strong YTD growth of 9.8%
through April 2011, suggests that we may be at the beginning of another up business cycle.
There are some troublesome HEADWINDS:
High unemployment in the U.S. and Europe
Heavy government debt, with the potential for defaults in some European countries
High deficit spending in the U.S. and a stalled budget process in Congress
Japan's natural disasters and nuclear reactor problems
Unrest in the Middle East and Northern Africa
Housing market mired in recession-like condition
There are some promising TAILWINDS:
Historically low interest rates
Modestly improving worldwide GDPs
Automotive industry recovery
Stock market recoveries worldwide
Double digit GDP growth in China and India
Explosive growth in smartphones and tablets
Increasing demand for bandwidth and speed in our communication systems
2011 Outlook
Based on current demand for electronics, we are raising our 2011 forecast from a growth of +6.7% to
+8.5%. The following table forecasts connector demand by geographic region.
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