Crimes Vs. Unemployment

PROPERTY CRIMES

Statistics Managerial

Session: September 2010

TABLE OF CONTENT

Page #

Executive summary 3

Introduction

Background and problems

Scope

Data design

Data analysis and Inferences

Descriptive analysis of Crimes

Influential statistics

Crimes vs. Unemployment

Conclusion

Reference

Appendices

Executive summary

An analysis was performed to determine to see if the amount of property crimes were higher in states with a larger unemployment rate. The survey results in case 49 were used in determining this hypothesis. The null hypothesis stated there was no increase in unemployment in states with larger property crime rate and there isn't any noticeable increase in unemployment. The alternative hypothesis we're stating is that there is a noticeable increase in property crime where there is a higher unemployment rate. We used a simple linear regression analysis to project this hypothesis. The result is that there is no pattern in an increase of property crime to increase in unemployment. We have to reject the alternative hypothesis and accept the null hypothesis. After finding our hypothesis to be rejected, we used a multiple regression analysis to determine what the key factors are that result in a higher crime rate.

Introduction

Background

Crimes are not new to this century. There are some studies available since 1830 and crimes rate always describe an upward and downward movement. Crime experts have identified a variety of social, economic, personal, and demographic factors that influence crime rate trends. Although, crime experts are still uncertain about how these factors impact these trends, directional change seems to be associated with crime rates.

Scope

How much property crime is there? What are the trends and the patterns in property crime rate? What is the impact of unemployment in crime rate?

These are some of the core issues that will be addressed in this report.

Data design

The raw data for this analysis come from US government sources such as 1988 Uniform Crime reports, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Office of Research and Statistics, Social Security Administration, Commerce Department, and so forth.

These data covered all 50 states in US. For each state, we have data regarding:

- Crime rate per hundred thousand inhabitants (CRIMES); property crimes include burglary, larceny, theft, and motor vehicle theft

- Capita income (PINCOME)

- High school dropout rate (DROPOUT)

- Average precipitation in inches in the major cities (PRECIP)

- Percentage of public aid recipients (PUBAID)

- Density of population (DENSITY)

- Public aid for families with children, dollars per family (KIDS)

- Percentage of unemployed workers (UNEMPLOY)

- Percentage of the residents living in urban areas (URBAN)

Our objective is to analyze property crime. Are the other factors (PINCOME, DROPOUT, PRECIP, PUBAID, DENSITY, KIDS, UNEMPLOY, URBAN) influenced positively or negatively the property crime rate? What are the frequency of occurrence and the reasonable probability that these factors influence property crime rate?

Data analysis and Inferences

Descriptive analysis of Crimes

This is some observations:

- Mean: 4,559.2

- Dispersion: 1,231.9

- Mode: 5705.7

- Median: 4365.9

- Minimum: 2,017.4

- Maximum: 7,819.9

Influential statistics

Regression output confidence interval

variables coefficients p-value 95% lower 95% upper

Intercept -642.5030 .5339 -2,710.5819 1,425.5760

PINCOME -0.0183 .8136 -0.1745 0.1378

DROPOUT 81.2926 .0006 36.8914 125.6937

PUBAID -113.7144 .1561 -272.6524 45.2235

DENSITY -1.9841 .0096 -3.4583 -0.5100

KIDS 1.1038 .4504 -1.8215 4.0292

PRECIP 1.5821 .8880 -20.9632 24.1274

UNEMPLOY -46.3830 .5635 -207.2353 114.4692

URBAN 64.3915 6.18E-07 42.3173 86.4657

- We are sure almost 100% that crimes is significantly related to at least one factor (p-value = 2.42E-08 for the overall F test)

- 63% (correlation R2 = 0.63) of the variability in crime depends on these 8 factors; it is a good relationship.

- Capita income is 18.64% related to crime

- High school dropout rate 99.94% related to crime

- Average precipitation in inches in the major cities 11.2% related to crime

- Percentage of public aid recipients 84.39% related to crime

- Density of population is 99.04% related to crime

- Public aid for families with children, dollars per family is 54.97% related to crime

- Percentage of unemployed workers