Letter of Intent for Research Proposal - Voter Independence

Kevin N. Burke

Professor Mary Beth Altier

Introduction to Political Science Methods - 790:300

September 29, 2010

Letter of Intent for Research Proposal

Within the last decade, the number of registered voters who identify themselves as "independent" voters has increased; in 2000, thirty percent of registered voters identified as independent, by 2009, that number had risen to thirty-six percent (Pew Research Center). In the media, polls are often used that reflect the opinions of the independent voter towards an issue, party, or candidate. These polls are frequently cited when analyzing or predicting the outcome of an election; specific prominence is given to the independent vote as a bellwether of the country's political mood. However, studies have indicated that while independent voters' may shift in attitude toward politics, those attitudes do not necessarily translate into shifts at ballot box. In his review of "The Myth of the Independent Voter," Weisberg writes about the book's concept of "leaners," a tested theory that most individuals who identify as independents, more often that not hold partisan views and lean heavily toward the right or the left (428).

My proposed research study will build upon this theory, but will seek to develop an understanding of why voters choose not to identify with any political party. I contend that while experienced voters may identify as independent and still lean toward the right or the left, new or inexperienced voters--particularly young voters--are more likely to become a "swing vote" not particularly leaning toward one side or the other. These voters are more likely to cast a ballot based on the strength or persuasive talents of a candidate, not based on party identification. This study will address the question: are younger independents less attached to a particular political party than their older counterparts?

This study will use both quantitative and qualitative measures to collect data. By nature, the vote of an individual is secret and cannot be known for certain, therefore, this study will rely of the self-reports of individual voting habits. An in depth questionnaire will be developed that will ask questions that will be used to determine the voting habits and history of the individuals completing the survey. Subjects will be selected using voter registrations data. For comparison, the sample will include an equal number of individuals registered as Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.

The study will also look at a sample of voter registration records to gain a historical perspective of voter registration trends. The data will be used to determine the number of individuals who changed