Pakistan Banking Sector Analysis

First, the drag of non-performing loans has been eased considerably reducing the need for setting aside the provisions for loan losses. As these provisions were made at the expense of the profits the banks are now reaping the benefits of building up substantial provisions and taking the hit on their profits in the past.

Second, the corporate income tax rate on banks' profits has gradually come down from 58 percent to 38 percent saving on their tax deductions. These savings not only get translated in to higher profits but also act as incentives for better performance because the tax rate no longer acts as a penalty.

Third, the diversification of the banks assets into new and so far underserved segments such as agriculture, mortgage, auto, SMEs, Consumer and Credit Cards have raised their net interest margins. As competition has become quite tough in the corporate segment the margins on corporate loans have been squeezed considerably. But the spreads earned in these new segments are quite attractive. Thus a large part of the profits originate from lending to these underserved segments of the population. This is a Win- Win situation as small farmers, small businesses and middle class consumers, who had so far been denied access to bank credit, are able to get financing the banks are able to earn higher spreads.

Fourth, there has been a shift in the maturing profile of both the banks' deposits and banks' loans. Half of the total deposits are now placed for short term duration earning negligible rates of return compared to the past where the distribution of deposits were concentrated in medium to long duration earning much higher returns.

On the assets side, more of the bank loans are being disbursed for fixed investment purposes. These have long maturity structure and pay higher interest rates in double digits.

This shift in the composition of deposits and advances has helped earn the banks a higher spread boosting their profitability.

As the majority of the banks are operating in the private sector they will remain guided by the bottom line considerations i.e. the profits. Consolidation and market competition will act as a deterrent on abnormal profits but it is the responsibility of the regulator to ensure that these profits are not made by taking excessive risk with the depositors' money or by banks indulging in collusive practices. The regulator has to ensure that the access to credit is further broadened and small farming households, small and medium businesses and middle classes are able to meet their legitimate credit needs. At the same time the regulator has to take stringent action against those banks found guilty of anti-competitive or collusive practices.

Another popular indictment against the banking sector is that they are financing speculative activities such as stock